Introduction: If the tax-included price is calculated, the tax-included price of ultra-high power 500mm rose from 15,000 yuan/ton at the beginning of the year to 49,000 yuan/ton on June 14, a...

If the tax-included price is calculated, the tax-included price of ultra-high power 500mm rose from 15,000 yuan/ton at the beginning of the year to 49,000 yuan/ton on June 14, an increase of 34,000 yuan/ton, and the tax-included price- The difference between variable costs has increased by 30,000 yuan/ton. It can be seen that the price increase of graphite electrodes in this round has basically turned into net profit so far.

If the proportion of production and sales of ordinary power, high power, and ultra-high power graphite electrodes is 15%, 35%, and 50%, we estimate that the current average tax-included price of graphite electrodes is 39,800 yuan/ton (excluding tax) 34,000 yuan/ton), the net profit is 1.41 yuan/ton, and the net profit reaches 40%, which can be called a heavenly profit.

Of course, this is also a way to make up for the hellish losses of graphite electrodes. After all, this industry has lost nine times in ten years, and once suffered a long-term loss of more than 6,000 yuan/ton.

In the case of high profits, it stands to reason that the output of graphite electrodes should increase greatly; but the data reported by China Business Network shows that this is not the case. According to incomplete statistics, from January to April 2017, China’s graphite electrode output was 175,500 tons, a growth rate of 17% compared with the same period last year. Among them, the output of ordinary power graphite electrodes was 45,000 tons, a growth rate of 4.7% compared with the same period last year; the output of high-power graphite electrodes was 76,000 tons, a growth rate of 11.9% compared with the same period last year; the output of ultra-high power graphite electrodes was 54,500 tons, a growth rate of 41.2% compared with the same period last year.

With reference to the statistical data of Baichuan Information, the current total production capacity of graphite electrodes in the country has reached 1.4 million tons, but the total output in 2016 was 500,000 tons, and the capacity utilization rate was only 35.62%; even if the output increased by 25% in 2017 (17% from January to April ), and the capacity utilization rate is only 44.35%.

Which is still very low. Why is this happening? Why is it not full of production?

In the nearly 30-page in-depth report “A mid-term strategy for the steel industry in 2017: the post-steel age, the rise of electric furnace steel and graphite electrodes” issued by the Everbright Securities Iron and Steel Wangzhaohua team on June 14, the country’s graphite electrode production capacity is divided into four parts. Large blocks: “2+26” cities, perennial shutdown, Jilin carbon, Fangda carbon and others.

1. First of all, the Ministry of Environmental Protection announced on April 5 that it will carry out a one-year enhanced supervision and inspection of air pollution prevention and control in the “2+26” cities. The “2” in the “2+26” cities refers to Beijing and Tianjin, and the other 26 cities involve Hebei. The four provinces of Beijing, Shanxi, Shandong, and Henan are all on the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei air pollution transmission channel; the air quality is assessed on a monthly basis and linked to political performance. And this “2+26” city contributes 46% of the country’s graphite electrode production capacity and 33% of the output. In 2016, the capacity utilization rate was only 25.44%. It is expected that the capacity utilization rate will be difficult to increase, and there is even the possibility of further decline.
2. Secondly, due to the perennial downturn and losses, 10 companies have been in a state of suspension of production, which together contributed 21% of the country’s graphite electrode production capacity. Due to the high cost of start-up funds and the complicated recruitment process, only Shanxi Hongte Chemical Co., Ltd. has been reported. It is planned to resume production in early June because of the participation of venture capital. From June to August, more than 2,000 tons of pre-finished products will be roasted and graphitized. At the end of June, the first batch of 500-600 tons of graphite electrodes will be put on the market. , The new end product needs to be in November, and the stable product quality will take longer. In addition, there is no news of other companies resuming production.
3. Thirdly, Jilin Carbon, as the former leader of the national graphite electrode industry, was not particularly rich in funds after being 70% controlled by the private real estate company Zhongze in October 2015. There is a plan to relocate in the future. Assumed new position in Fangda Carbon in April, although the company still has a production capacity of 120,000 tons, the output in 2016 was only 58,000 tons, and it is difficult to further increase.
4. As for the remaining enterprises, including Fangda Carbon, Nantong Carbon, etc., the total production capacity is 347,000 tons (accounting for 25% of the national production capacity), and the output in 2016 is 279,000 tons (contributing to 56% of the national production capacity). It has reached 80%, and there is room for further improvement, but overall it is limited.